Cyber Issues have never dominated an election process as much as it now has the US Presidential elections of 2016. Whether Trump will win or Hillary will prevail depend on how the Cyber activities in US have affected the electoral minds.
The early use of “Information Technology” in election was in India in the form of the electronic voting machines (EVM). Naavi.org has discussed the issue of Cyber Law Compliance in EVMs in the past and also suggested methods of overcoming the compliance issues. (Check Here).
There were PIL complaint filed in this regard and a demonstration of the hackability of the EVM for which one activist was even arrested. Even Mr Subramanya Swamy had undertaken some activity in discussing the legality of EVM usage. But nothing came out of these discussions and now this discussion is in the past.
Some improvements have been made and EVMs have been accepted in Indian electoral process with whatever manual checks and balances that have been built to prevent its misuse.
In more recent days, the point of discussion in India has been on the use of Social Media for election campaign. Mr Modi was the first to make effective use of “Social Media” to take his messages across and “Digital Campaigning” became an integral part of election campaigning in India. Out of the other parties, AAP also made good use of social media to carry its message across.
What we are now seeing in US elections is however a different type of discussion.
First the discussion was Ms Hillary Clinton’s inability to secure her official e-mails while she was the Secretary of State and her use of a private e-mail server. This was exposed with WikiLeaks hacking into the server and revealing the e-mail correspondence for public gaze. Obviously, this contained many e-mails in which US policies on international relations and other private correspondence which all revealed what her rivals called her duplicity and political maneuvering. This has become an issue of defining her character and her suitability for Presidency.
Ms Clinton’s team have accused the hands of Russian hackers in this hack indicating that the issue is more like a Cyber war to influence the results of the election in favour of Mr Donald Trump. No body is saying that the e-mails are not existing but they are only complaining that they have been revealed in a wrong manner.
However, what complicated the issue is that Ms Clinton after receiving a notice from FBI on handing over the e-mails for investigation proceeded to delete over 33000 e-mails. This directly amounted to tampering of evidence and became an independent offence in itself completely unrelated to the content of these e-mails. Some of the e-mails which have surfaced now also indicate that there was full knowledge that the e-mails contained incriminating evidence and were deliberately deleted.
It appears judicially infeasible to defend this action unless the Judiciary turns a blind eye for political reasons.
Additionally, in an unrelated investigation on “Child Pornography” in one of the laptops of a person whose wife was an aide of Ms Hillary Clinton, a set of e-mails (650,000 in number) related to Ms Clinton seems to have surfaced. The speculation is that these e-mails were kept as a back up to secure the person against any adverse action by Ms Clinton. (i.o.w. as a tool of self defense by blackmail).
The fact that FBI had reportedly closed the case of e-mals earlier and has now indicated reopening of the case indicates that there may be some substance in all the allegations. Also the FBI wanted to hedge itself for a possible Trump win which could make FBI complicit in a criminal offence for its earlier action of closing the case prematurely.
The developments indicate
a) negligence in securing e-communications of a Government official,
b) hacking by a foreign Government and hactivists, tampering of evidence,
c) child pornography etc., all different kinds of Cyber Crimes.
Besides there could be corruption issues revealed in the relationship between donations made to Clinton Foundation and the Quid Pro Quo if any.
If Mr Clinton wins then there will be further discussion on covering up by the Government or Impeachment of the President, both of which will occupy public discussion space for years to come.
We in India have heard of several serious allegations against the previous UPA Government of similar nature. But these have taken years now in investigation by CBI without reaching a conclusion. But possibly US justice could be faster.
But it is difficult to expect the US DOJ going against the elected president. If Mr Trump wins, whatever FBI or DOJ does will be dubbed as “Vindictiveness” as we frequently hear in India.
The next 7 days to the election, it is expected that WikiLeaks could be coming out with more revelations that could damage Hillary Clinton and hence the stock markets are already indicating the probable victory for Donald Trump.
Whatever may be the political outcome, the developments will be a watershed moment in national elections and every other country including India needs to take note that foreign Governments may use their Cyber War capabilities to change the electoral outcome in enemy countries.
India is exposed to similar risks from China which in supporting Pakistan would like Congress to come back to power at the center and Mr Modi to lose. Probably planning may already be in progress in Chinese Cyber War rooms and we may see a test run of it during the next January polls.
I therefore caution the Central Government to take necessary counter measures to ensure that China cannot interfere in the Indian Electoral process by hacking into either the Jandhan yojana, the NPCI or the GST system.
Do we have the Skill and the Will? ….or do we continue with “All is Well” and “Chalta Hai” attitude…?..only time will tell.
Naavi
